This one is for who are interested in the game beyond the game.
Take a look at this fascinating analysis by Jeff Ely and Toomas Hinnosaara (Professor & Student at Kellogg, respectively) on Jeff's blog - cheaptalk.
Take a look at this fascinating analysis by Jeff Ely and Toomas Hinnosaara (Professor & Student at Kellogg, respectively) on Jeff's blog - cheaptalk.
This histogram of the difference in points between the home team and visiting team at the end of regulation play. These are data from all NBA games 1997-2009. A positive number means that the home team won, a zero means that the game was tied and therefore went into overtime. Notice the massive spike at zero.
There is a great video if you read through to the post, which shows how the distribution of the lead of the home team changes in the last 40 seconds of the game. Things look pretty normal till about 20 seconds are left. Something happens in the last 20 seconds that makes things converge to a tie.
Reasons behind this last-20 (or last-40) seconds phenomenon is explained very well here. Essentially it is centered around "risk-taking strategy by the trailing team increases the chance of landing at a tie game, and then conservative strategy keeps us there."
Read through comments of both posts - they offer some very interesting insights.
There is a great video if you read through to the post, which shows how the distribution of the lead of the home team changes in the last 40 seconds of the game. Things look pretty normal till about 20 seconds are left. Something happens in the last 20 seconds that makes things converge to a tie.
Reasons behind this last-20 (or last-40) seconds phenomenon is explained very well here. Essentially it is centered around "risk-taking strategy by the trailing team increases the chance of landing at a tie game, and then conservative strategy keeps us there."
Read through comments of both posts - they offer some very interesting insights.
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